Israel Update for May 2009

"The Sajir 2 missile, which has an advanced technology, was launched today," Ahmadinejad proudly proclaimed during an election campaign rally held in a northern Iranian city. He maintained that the missile "landed exactly on its target"-a claim that was not independently verified. He added defiantly that "In the nuclear case, we send them a message: Today the Islamic Republic of Iran is running the show."

While the timing may have been just a coincidence, many Israeli security analysts said the Shiite regime probably pre-planned the missile test to coincide with the end of the White House summit, knowing that the subject of Iran's nuclear programme would be discussed by the American and Israeli leaders and thus be in news headlines around the world.

Iran's latest test firing was especially significant in that the Sajil 2 is the first long range solid propellant fueled rocket fired by the theocratic country. Experts say such missiles, based on North Korean technology, can be prepared for firing weeks or months in advance and then transported to hidden silos in preparation for future launch. By comparison, liquid propellant missiles, which Iran also possesses, must be fueled and fired fairly quickly say rocket experts, meaning they would be much easier to detect by American or Israeli spy satellites if an attack involving them was pending.

Iran's latest missile test firing occurred less than one month before the country holds new presidential elections, with polls predicting that Ahmadinejad will triumph once again after several relatively moderate candidates were eliminated by Shiite clerical election officials. In a campaign speech delivered on May 21, the belligerent leader said it was "disgraceful" that his predecessor, the relatively moderate Mohammad Khatami, had reached a deal with European leaders in 2003 to suspend Iran's uranium enrichment program, a key component in producing nuclear bombs. He averred that Iran's "enemies designed colonial policies" that resulted in the "disgraceful agreement," implying once again that he will never give in to Western pressure to halt his nation's threatening nuclear programme.

Ahmadinedad's comments came as a team of American and Russian scientists who work with the renowned East-West Institute issued a chilling report stating that Iran will be capable of constructing some sort of nuclear weapon as early as next year. However they added that the development of a warhead designed to deliver such a deadly weapon to its intended target will take longer, possibly up to five years.

Israeli experts point to substantial evidence that Iran is farther along the nuclear warpath than most international analysts believe. Adanced Chinese technology has been secretly incorprated into their programme, some suspect. Meanwhile the New York Post reported that Communist Chinese leaders-thirsty for Iranian oil-are currently negotiating a deal with the Shiite government in Tehran to build up to 20 nuclear power plants throughout Iran in the coming years. Experts point out that fuel for nuclear weapons can also be obtained from such plants.

Preparing For War

Signs that the Netanyahu government may be preparing the country for a possible military strike against Iran were evident in May. A major test of Israel's air force capability to deal with massive rocket launches from Hizbullah militiamen in Lebanon and from neighboring Syria and the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip was conducted mid month, according to Israel's Channel 10 television network. Iranian President Ahmadinejad has declared several times that Syrian, Hizbullah and Hamas leaders have pledged to back his country militarily if its nuclear sites are hit by Israel or the United States.

Hundreds of airborne military and cargo jets tested the air force's ability to simultaneously attack mock missile sites on several different war fronts. Missile defense systems were also activated during the week long war drill, according to the news report. While not publicly acknowledging that such a drill had taken place, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak did tell reporters that Israel has "a strong air force, which gives us all a sense of security."

Military analysts say intense rocket assaults from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip upon Israeli civilian population centres will undoubtedly quickly follow any Israeli air force and/or long range missile strike against Iran's nuclear targets. In light of this disturbing prospect, all residents living in Israel, along with visiting tourists, will be asked in early June to participate in the largest ever civilian war drill. Air raid sirens will sound throughout the country, with everyone asked to head to bomb shelters or anti-chemical sealed rooms in their homes, or if they are out or tourists staying in hotels, to nearby public shelters. Citizens will be instructed by army personnel via radio and television to prepare emergency food and medical supplies in advance as if an enemy attack was actually imminent.

Obama Touts Palestinian State

PM Netanyahu stated quite clearly during his first days in office that he would focus his attention on the Iranian nuclear threat, putting the internally divisive issue of peace talks with the Palestinians on the back burner. Despite this declaration, President Obama focused most of his post summit comments on the Palestinian issue, repeating once again his contention that resolving the long and bitter conflict between Arab Palestinians and Israeli Jews in the near term will somehow help deflect the Iranian threat.

Israeli media reports said Netanyahu pointed out to Obama that both Hizbullah and Hamas-Israel's two most active Muslim enemies in recent years-receive substantial military and financial assistance from Iran. Until something concrete is done to change that reality, no peace accord with the Palestinians can succeed, he vigorously argued. He reportedly reminded the US President that the American-backed Oslo peace accords, which were being implemented during Netanyahu's first term in office from mid 1996 until mid 1999, ultimately collapsed because of a renewed Hamas terror campaign partially funded by Iran. Given that the radical Palestinian Sunni Muslim group, supported by the Lebanese Shiite militia, is in full control of the Gaza Strip, and popular in the West Bank, it is hardly a ripe time to pursue a final peace treaty with Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas, who is constantly under threat from his Hamas rivals.

As most political analysts anticipated, PM Netanyahu did not endorse President Obama's call for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state. Although the American leader insisted in his public remarks following the summit meeting that such a "two state solution" is the only way forward, Netanyahu stuck to his position that working toward that goal before the Iranian vow to annihilate Israel is dealt with is totally futile. Still, he acknowledged that the threat itself might be used as a means to bridge differences between Israel and the wider Arab world.