Israel Update for June 2011

Analysts said Hamas leaders ordered their militiamen to prevent planned marches along the border fence with Israel because they did not wish to place any further obstacles in the difficult path of reconciliation with the ruling Fatah party, whose leaders have asked Hamas to halt rocket attacks upon Israeli civilian targets at this time. Meantime violent protests were held in various Arab neighborhoods in the eastern half of Jerusalem, including Abu Tor south of the Old City and in the often-troubled Silwan neighborhood adjacent to the disputed Temple Mount. Demonstrations also took place in other Arab cities north and south of Jerusalem and in Gaza City.

In a related matter, the Palestinian news agency WAFA released a report that claimed 14 people were killed and 43 wounded when internal clashes broke out at a Palestinian refugee neighborhood in southern Syria. The violence began when parents of some of the slain border rioters accused the Popular Front PLO group of organizing the Golan Heights clashes which left their children dead, blasting the fact that they had sacrificed their lives as part of a political show which had absolutely no chance of actually altering the situation on the ground.

Assad Skating On Thin Ice

Meanwhile officials in Jerusalem were closely monitoring the deteriorating domestic crisis in Syria, worried as noted before that it might spill over into diversionary armed attacks against Israel. The news that thousands of civilians living in northwest Syria were so distressed by the horrendous government crackdown that they felt they had to flee for safety into nearby Turkey only underlined how dangerous the situation has become, many said. Security reports in Israel say that around 1,700 Syrians have already been killed in the spreading anti-regime upheaval, several hundred of them soldiers and policemen who refused orders to fire on their own people. Financial and political sanctions leveled earlier against the Assad regime by the European Union and the United States were further strengthened in late June to include several military leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who were accused of aiding Assad's agents in their atrocious treatment of Syrian anti-government protestors.

Analysts said a full-scale civil war in Syria would be markedly different than the one raging in Libya since the Assad regime is heavily armed with Russian made weapons, including sophisticated anti-aircraft missile systems, plus long-range Scud and SS-21 missiles that can carry chemical and biological warheads. Both deadly agents are known to be in Assad's substantial arsenal. On top of this, Syria has one of the largest armies on earth despite the fact that the country has less than 20 million residents. Unlike relatively isolated Libya, it also has a significant ally in Iran. While not expecting NATO military intervention due to these facts, Israeli government officials would still like to see American President Barack Obama take a stronger public stand against the regime. As of late June, the US leader had only spoken out twice about Assad's hellish crackdown even though it has been far more severe than in Libya or other countries that have received stronger rebukes from the White House.

The Syrian dictator delivered only his second speech since the "Arab Spring" uprising crisis erupted in his country last March. To no one's surprise, Bashar Assad defiantly vowed to remain in power and defended his regime's appalling military crackdown against his own citizens, which is being led by his ruthless brother and brother-in-law. The despot denounced as mere "rumors" media reports that well over a thousand people have been killed by his security forces, maintaining that he wants to have "peace and tranquility based on partnerships with the people." Israeli Middle East analysts said if that was truly the case, his regime's vicious suppression campaign would not be taking place. They added that among the dead are many Syrian soldiers and policemen who were killed on orders of their own commanders when they refused to fire upon their fellow citizens.

Hard To Reconcile

Scheduled talks in Cairo between Palestinian Authority and Hamas leaders, designed to finalize details of their May 4th national unity pact, were postponed several times in June as serious conflicts continued to emerge between the rival Palestinian groups. The planned unveiling of a new "national unity" PA cabinet including Hamas representatives was put off earlier in the month after Hamas demanded that current Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad step down. They accused the government official of harming the Palestinian economy by issuing tough new financial regulations, despite the fact that many western economists have strongly commended Fayyad's reforms. Israeli analysts say the real reason Hamas extremist leaders want to see him removed from office is that the relatively moderate political leader is expected to support any future peace accord with Israel that allows Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem to remain intact, along with some settlement blocks near the capital city. Of course, Hamas wants to see all of Jerusalem fall under Palestinian Islamic control, not to mention Tel Aviv, Haifa and all other Israeli cities.

During his visit to Beirut, PA President Mahmoud Abbas told Lebanese state television that he has the right to choose who will head up the new unity cabinet. Hamas officials rejected the claim, declaring that the unity government proposal will continue to go nowhere if Abbas keeps insisting on keeping PM Fayyad at its head. PA leaders shot back that Hamas is deliberating wrecking the unity accord on orders of Iran, which helps arm and fund the militant group. Despite this charge, Hamas leaders appear to be adhering to their controversial commitment to Abbas to halt all rocket fire upon Israel, at least for the time being. Despite the lack of attacks in recent weeks, Israeli armed forces have been busy gearing up for a possible new Palestinian uprising later this summer in the run up to the planned September PA declaration of Palestinian statehood. At the same time, a major countrywide drill was held mid-month to test Israel's readiness to absorb a massive enemy missile blitz upon civilian centres, which government and military leaders warn is likely to occur in any future new regional war.

Instead of meeting in Cairo, PA and Hamas leaders headed to Turkey to explain why they have not yet been able to form a unity cabinet, which is supported by the recently re-elected government headed by controversial Prime Minister Erdogan. The Turkish Muslim politician told overall Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal that his government "recognizes the legitimacy" of the radical Islamic movement and rejects the label of "terrorist group" given to it by the United States and some other countries. Instead, he averred that Hamas is made up of "resistance fighters who are struggling to defend their land." Of course, Erdogan did not mention that the Palestinian group regularly attacks Jewish civilian targets, blowing up public buses and firing rockets and mortar shells at schools, shops and homes, which seems to be the very definition of terrorism.

Recognise Us

While visiting Lebanon and Turkey, PA leader Abbas reiterated that he is planning to make a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood at UN headquarters in Manhattan this coming September. However in his Lebanese TV interview, he admitted for the first time publicly that such a declaration might be mute given that the Obama administration has announced it will veto any Security Council resolution endorsing the one-sided pronouncement. The American leader made his position clear during his late May meeting with PM Netanyahu in Washington, pleading for the Palestinians to re-enter peace negotiations with Israel instead of making unilateral declarations. Germany has also indicated that it will oppose the planned PA move, as have several other EU countries.

During his TV interview, Abbas claimed he has received the support of 116 UN member nations out of the current total of 192. However in an apparent reference to Obama's statements, he added that "negotiations are my preferred choice" for finally achieving Palestinian statehood. Israeli government officials dismissed the comments, saying that Abbas is not really interested in returning to peace talks at this time. They added that this was confirmed by his willingness to enter into a political alliance with a terrorist group that strongly rejects all attempts to make peace with Israel.

Mahmoud Abbas is not the only regional leader seeking international recognition. In an Israeli television interview conducted in late June, PM Binyamin Netanyahu repeated his May White House call for the Palestinians to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He said that the long and bitter Israeli-Palestinian conflict would end once and for all if Abbas would simply utter the phrase "I will accept the Jewish state." Noting that he endorsed the establishment of a Palestinian state next to Israel in 2009, the Israeli Premier said "Abbas must do what I did two years ago. He must stand up to his people and say, 'I will accept the Jewish state.' They can call their state Palestine or Arafat-land. I'm not talking about what they call it; but what it is. For them, it is the nation state of the Palestinian people. Israel is the nation state of the Jewish people. This means that the Palestinians go there, and Jews come here."