David Dolan

Tzipi Livni, Israel's Foreign Minister, emerged victorious in the Kadima party primary vote held on September 17. Despite earlier indications that she would probably be forced into a runoff vote with the more hawkish Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz, the 50 year old female politician garnered just enough ballots in the first round to be declared the outright winner. However her supporters were embarrassed when initial television exit poll projections that she would defeat Mofaz by around 10 points proved to be far too optimistic.

Analysts said the fact that Livni received a mere 431 more votes than Mofaz out of over 38,000 cast by Kadima party members indicates she may have serious trouble forming a viable coalition government. Under Israeli law, the new Kadima leader has just 28 days to try and stitch together such a government after being formally asked to do so by President Shimon Peres. However he can grant Livni a two week extension if he believes she is likely to succeed in her appointed task during that additional time frame.

The Israeli political scene remained murky at best in the wake of the mid September vote. It was not only unclear whether the dovish Foreign Minister could actually form a viable government, but also exactly when current Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would finally exit Israel's tumultuous political stage.

Dealing with a recommendation by Israeli police investigators in early September that he be indicted over various corruption charges, Olmert formally resigned as premier just a few days after the close primary vote. However he will continue to serve as Israel's caretaker leader until a new government is formed. If Livni fails to do so within six weeks after receiving her initial charge from President Peres, another Knesset member could be asked to step up to the plate. If that occurs, and the chosen Knesset member fails to knit a new coalition together, fresh national elections must be held within three months.

Despite the political upheaval, peace talks with Palestinian Authority leaders continued to draw headlines, with further indications that the most contentious issue between the two sides-the final status of Jerusalem-is under discussion despite Olmert's insistence that this is not the case.

Meanwhile tensions remained high with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas during the month as army commanders revealed they are preparing for a possible Hamas coup attempt early next year against the PA government that rules most Arab population centers in Judea and Samaria. Many Israelis were also transfixed on the severe financial crisis gripping the United States in September, which obviously has far reaching global implications, especially for countries like Israel that are strongly allied to America.

The Kadima Vote

A virtual unknown in the Israeli political scene until she entered parliament for the first time in 1999 (after serving for a short time in the early 1980s as a low level agent in the Israeli Mossad secret service), the Tel Aviv-born Tzipi Livni nevertheless beat three veteran Israeli male politicians, all ex-security officials, to become her party's first female leader. Not a few Israeli political analysts compared the race to the US presidential campaign, where a noted military and security expert-John McCain-is up against a relative newcomer to the political scene with little security background.

In Israel's case, Livni-a licensed attorney who garnered 16,936 votes in the leadership contest-was competing with Shaul Mofaz (16,505 votes) who has previously held many top army positions all the way up to Chief of Staff, and was also Ariel Sharon's Defense Minister. One of the other two candidates that Livni bested, Avi Dichter, had served as head of Israel's internal Shin Bet intelligence agency after a long and distinguished military career, while Interior Minister Meir Shitreet had earlier held the role of Internal Security minister. In the September 17 vote, Shitreet captured 8.5% of the vote, while Dichter received just 6.5%.

There was another obvious comparison with the US presidential contest-a woman was hoping to grab the top ring. Of course, former American First Lady Hillary Clinton failed in her attempt to wrest the Democratic Party nomination, although the female angle is clearly still alive in the US contest with Senator McCain's surprise choice of Alaska's Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. However unlike in Washington, Livni would not become Israel's first ever female leader if she succeeds in forming a new coalition government-the late Golda Meir secured that distinction when she became prime minister in 1974.

The Road Ahead

In her victory statement, the beaming Foreign Minister declared she was thankful for the "national responsibility given me by the public," despite the fact she barely won the Kadima tussle, and only a small portion of Israeli voters were eligible to cast ballots in the internal party competition. Speaking as if she had already overcome the many obstacles ahead and successfully knitted together a coalition government to become Israel's new prime minister, Livni added that she will "approach this job with great reverence."

Political analysts noted that several exit polls suggested many Kadima voters chose Livni mainly because national opinion surveys reveal she has the best chance of beating opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu in the next general election. Quite a few said they actually preferred Mofaz or one of the other two candidates to head the party. But many added it was more important to select the politician which has the best chance of keeping the Likud party leader from returning to the premier's chair. Several recent opinion polls had Livni just slightly trailing Netanyahu if national elections were held today, with Mofaz performing more poorly against the veteran Likud leader.

Labor party leader Ehud Barak lags far behind both Livni and Netanyahu in all current popularity surveys. Analysts say Barak's low political standing will undoubtedly help Livni in her attempts to glue together a workable coalition government, although Labor's cost for jumping aboard will probably be very high. The Defense Minister and former premier wants to avoid new elections at all costs, and is said to be hoping he can improve his ratings under a new Kadima-led government, especially if military conflict erupts in the region. Therefore he is the most likely candidate to bring his 19 seat party-the second largest in the current Knesset-into a new Livni administration. At the same time, some Labor leaders are concerned that Livni might become more popular as the country's premier, and so are urging Barak to hold out for early elections.