Israel Update for December 2007

The reports opening assessment is further weakened by a note placed in parenthesis in paragraph three revealing that two of the participating security agencies are only "moderately confident" that the alleged 2003 halt meant that Iran's entire nuclear weapons program had been put on ice. "DOE and NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represent a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program." Thus at least portions of Iran's hidden nuclear weapons program may not have come to even a temporary end, again as Israeli leaders insist is the actual, if quite unpleasant, reality. Further clouding the murky picture, the report's authors then admit that "we do not know whether Iran currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

The Response

Israeli leaders scrambled to formulate a response to the astounding NIE assessment. While feeling compelled to restate Israel's firm contention that Iran's nuclear ambitions pose an existential threat to Israel and to the entire region, they also wanted to protect their close military and political alliance with the world's current superpower.

Prime Minister Olmert-who has openly called the Iranian nuclear threat the greatest challenge to Israel's existence since the country was created nearly 60 years ago-reportedly told a special session of his inner security cabinet on December 9 that Israel "stands by its incontrovertible evidence" that Iran is carrying on with its clandestine nuclear weapons program. He said Israeli intelligence agencies agreed with the American assertion that Iran halted its weapons program in the wake of the US-led military campaign to topple Saddam from power in early 2003, but uncovered significant evidence that it was subsequently restarted again in 2005.

The Israeli leader pointed out that the two main elements of such a weapons program-uranium enrichment and long range missile production-are being openly pursued by Iran, while other less important elements are thought to be occurring in secret. Olmert added that Iran also continues to overtly construct a heavy water nuclear reactor in the city of Arak, less than 200 miles southwest of Tehran, which will be capable of producing weapons grade plutonium once it goes on line.

Just days after the PM briefed his security cabinet on the political fallout caused by the NIE assessment; Israel's Channel Ten reported that Iran test fired its new Ashoura missile during the Annapolis summit in late November. It said the missile can reach targets over 1,500 miles away, placing all of the Middle East and parts of southern Europe in harms way. According to Channel Ten and various Israeli and international security sources, another Iranian missile, the Shihab 4, is also being developed which will be capable of striking all of Europe, including London, Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm.

Russian Bear Moves In

Foreign Minister Livni and other government leaders expressed deep concern that the US security report seriously harms Israel's attempts to prod the world to reign in Iran's nuclear program. This was seemingly demonstrated when the Kremlin announced mid month that since the assessment had supposedly "fully confirmed" its contention that Iran's nuclear program "has no military component," it was beginning to supply nuclear fuel for the reactor Russia helped Iran build at Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf (Iran later announced the reactor will be activated by mid-2008).

Later in the month, government officials in Moscow announced they will sell Iran the most sophisticated air defense shield currently available on the world weapons market, the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. Saying the system is better than anything currently produced by the United States, Israeli defense analysts warned that the top grade Russian system will make it very difficult for the highly esteemed Israeli Air Force to strike Iranian targets without sustaining substantial losses.

Despite their grave apprehensions, PM Olmert asked his cabinet ministers to refrain from speaking out publicly on the touchy topic. He averred that the White House appreciates Israel's unease, and was demonstrating this by sending America's top military commander to Jerusalem-Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff-to directly weigh Israel's profound distress over the controversial intelligence assessment.

Although Mullen refused to answer media questions during his whirlwind Dec 10 visit, his spokesman maintained that US political and military leaders "realize that Iran still poses a major threat to the region." Captain John Kirby added that "the Iranians have tried in the past to develop their nuclear capabilities, they can still develop them, and they support terror groups in the region." While admitting that America and Israel "do not now see eye to eye" on Iran's nuclear agenda, he said the two countries "remain close allies and will continue to do so."

Don't Upset Uncle Sam!

Despite Olmert's request that his junior ministers hold their tongues about the devastating NIE assessment, several spoke out anyway. The most pointed remarks came from Public Security Minister Avi Dicter, a widely respected security expert who headed the Shabak secret service from 2000 until 2005. Speaking at a town hall meeting in the coastal city of Holon on Dec 15, Dicter said "the American misconception" could lead the Middle East to a new war as severe as the Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli conflict, which nearly ended in Israel's defeat and a nuclear showdown between Washington and Moscow.

"Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the Iranian nuclear threat," stated the Kadima party member to a packed audience, adding that Israeli leaders "hope the US will know how to correct this." Bluntly terming the NIE report "a misconception by the world's leading superpower," he stressed that it was "not just an internal American matter" but had "serious repercussions for Israel and many other countries." In further comments that probably proved particularly irksome to US officials, Dicter stated his conviction that "Israel and other states must help in any way to fix this miscalculation, including providing intelligence material."