Israel Update for August 2011

Several analysts opined that if Hizbullah is indeed preparing for such a colossal assault-and various intelligence reports said preparations on the ground seem to confirm this is indeed the case-it would probably be sparked off in a similar fashion to the clashes now rocking southern Israel. As they did in 2006, Hizbullah militiamen would initially cross the border and attack IDF soldiers stationed along the tense border, and/or fire rockets at IDF outposts. When Israel returned the unprovoked fire, as it did along the Egyptian border, Hizbullah would keep ratcheting up the conflict until it was firing thousand of rockets into Israel. As in the south, the Iron Dome anti-rocket system would take out some of the incoming short-range rockets and longer range missiles, but not a majority of them, especially if hundreds of firings were occurring all at once. The key to preventing this scenario from becoming reality is for Israel to either take preemptive action against Hizbullah rocket stores and launching sites, or to do this once the first incidents occurred. However this also would give the radical Islamic group the upper propaganda hand in that it could claim the IDF responded to the small border incident in a hugely disproportionate manner-a contention often heard from the Palestinians.

Nuclear Winter?

Some Israeli commentators say the unprecedented regional events of the past few months indicate that the 'Arab Spring' may turn into the 'Arab winter' very quickly, possibly even a nuclear winter. Already under attack on the Arab street, the Netanyahu government might well decide it has nothing more to lose by taking out Iran's burgeoning nuclear programme as any war escalated. The Syrian regime might conclude it could dose the mushrooming anti-government internal revolt by sending Scud missiles against Tel Aviv. In other words, a regional war comparable to the harrowing 1973 Yom Kippur conflict, which nearly led to a US-USSR clash, may be in the offing. Of course, Israeli government and military leaders are well aware of this prospect, and are assiduously preparing for it.

All this come amid the background of the Palestinian Authority's intention to seek United Nations General Assembly support for its planned late September unilateral declaration of statehood, which a majority of member countries have already announced they will support. While repeating that the PA will never recognize a Jewish state-implying any Palestinian state will be a springboard for further warfare against Israel-PA leader Mahmoud Abbas said on August 28th that he intends to go through with the declaration despite opposition from the United States and several other countries. Although a UN vote would not actually create 'a viable Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital,' it would give the PA enhanced legal power to take Israeli political and military leaders to UN courts over alleged 'war crimes' and other charges. It would also strengthen the PA's political standing in many countries. Some Israeli analysts maintained it might actually spur on peace negotiations, although only a small minority believes that is likely. Most think the immediate outcome will be more harsh words between Palestinian and Israeli leaders, increased tensions on the streets, and possibly a new round of uprising violence.

All this to say, the coming weeks and months appear likely to be among the most pivotal ones in Israel's short modern history. With the Middle East trembling and the entire world shaking economically, socially, and in many places like Washington DC, quite literally, the need for sustained intercession before the Lord's throne appears to be greater than ever before. Cry out to the One who said 'My righteousness is near, My salvation has gone forth, and My arm will judge the peoples. The coastlands will wait for Me, and for My arm they will wait expectantly' (Isaiah 51:5).