Israel Update for February 2009

The three Orthodox parties that Netanyahu needs on board his coalition train strongly oppose Lieberman's proposed legal change, viewing the traditional religious marriage ceremony as a sacrosanct issue that can never be compromised upon. Meanwhile they also have their own pet projects and financial demands, especially funding for their religious school systems and other Orthodox institutions. But Lieberman, with a mainly non-religious support base, is unlikely to agree to support all of their demands, as will also probably be the case with the new premier.

Kadima's leadership quickly agreed to fulfill Lieberman's civil marriage demand, given that most of its supporters are secular Israelis who are at least open to the idea, as is even more the case with the Labor party and Meretz. But Likud leaders would only issue a rather vague statement averring that the party "reasons that a solution must be found to the personal status of 300,000 people who are not Jewish according to religious law, who immigrated to Israel over the last two decades." In other words, Netanyahu is making no promises on the highly emotive issue since he cannot possibly do so and gain the support of most of his other natural coalition allies.

Despite his apparent dilemma, Netanyahu still has one major card up his sleeve as he begins the expected tough political bargaining to build a viable coalition: None of the parties wants to go to new and expensive elections anytime soon; certainly not Yisrael Beiteinu which has just come out smelling like a rose from the February vote. So the Likud leader will simply point out that they have only two realistic choices at this time-give in somewhat on their various positions and requests, or sit in the opposition with little governmental benefits or positions of power as the big parties iron out a national unity deal that would undoubtedly leave them completely out in the cold.

Given his heightened status in the wake of the election, Lieberman is expected to once again become a deputy premier under either a Likud or Kadima-led government, with a probable focus on the growing existential threat posed by Iran's nuclear program. Although this was officially his focus under Olmert's administration, Foreign Minister Livni and Defense Minister Barak actually set the policy parameters on that crucial issue, leaving the hawkish Lieberman with nothing more to actually do than make the occasional strong statement on Iran which did not necessarily carry the full cabinet's seal of approval. Under Netanyahu, that would probably change, meaning an Israeli military strike upon Iran's spread out doomsday weapons program is more likely to be carried out than if Livni is at the government helm.

More Bombs From Gaza

Hamas rocket fire was directed at several Israeli cities during February from the Gaza Strip, while mortars and gunfire was aimed at IDF soldiers serving along the border fence. In response, the Israeli Air Force was sent into action on several occasions, bombing smuggling tunnels being dug by workmen under the border fence with Egypt. This came as indirect ceasefire negotiations, brokered by Cairo, stalled when Israeli officials made clear they will demand the release of soldier Gilad Shalit be included in any new deal. Hamas leaders rejected the Israeli condition, apparently believing that holding the soldier, who was abducted by the group in June 2007, leaves Israel less likely to launch an even bigger operation than the three week campaign which began in late December. Both Binyamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman have said they will indeed see to it that Hamas is removed from power in the small Gaza coastal zone.

Israeli defense officials revealed during February that weapons specialists used the three week war with Hamas fighters to help perfect a new anti-missile system being developed by the government. The system, called Iron Dome, is being designed to intercept most short range low flying rockets like the ones fired by Hamas and by Hizbullah forces during the 2006 Lebanon war. It is expected to be ready for deployment in about one year.

Media reports said Israeli leaders are very worried over a Hamas test firing during early February of a missile launched from the Gaza Strip out toward the Mediterranean Sea. Military analysts initially thought it was merely an advanced version of the Kassam rockets that Hamas has been shooting at Israeli targets since 2002. However it later became clear that the missile was an Iranian-built Nur-C 802 shore to ship weapon modeled after China's Silkworm missile. A similar missile badly damaged an Israel navy ship during the 2006 Lebanon war. Analysts said Iranian military specialists are now operating in the Gaza Strip and probably fired the missile themselves. Their apparent objective is to help the militant Palestinian group end the Israeli naval blockade of the crowded coastal zone, designed to stop weapons smuggling from the sea.

As a new government is formed in Israel amid more Hamas violence, it is good to remember that the country's King reigns over all of the Promised Land, and indeed over the entire universe! "Glorious and majestic are His deeds, and his righteousness endures forever" (Psalm 111:3).