Israel Update for July 2011

The latest dispute with Lebanon began to fester after Israel signed a maritime territorial accord with the Greek-speaking government ruling most of divided Cyprus last December. Apparently seeing yet another opportunity to bash the hated "Zionist entity," the radical Shiite Hizbullah movement, which now effectively governs Lebanon via its new proxy Prime Minister, Nijab Mitaki, launched a fierce verbal blast against Israel over the issue on July 14-the fifth anniversary of the start of Hizbullah's horrendous three week missile blitz launched against northern Israel. Speaking via Hizbullah's Manar television network, deputy leader Naim Qassem firmly rejected Israeli and American offers to help map out mutually acceptable maritime boundaries. Instead, he threatened war, proclaiming that "Lebanon will remain vigilant in order to regain its full rights, whatever it takes." He said that so-called "Israeli threats do not frighten us," adding surreally that "Israel knows its threats fall on deaf ears in Lebanon after it tasted the bitter taste of the powerful Lebanese resistance," an apparent reference to the 2006 conflict which Hizbullah started and neither side clearly won.

Later in the month, the Lebanese government signed a "memorandum of understanding" with Iran to jointly develop any oil and gas deposits that are discovered inside Lebanese territorial waters. Israeli officials say the prospect of Iranian petroleum personnel poking around the area near to where Israel's huge natural gas deposits are located is unsettling, to say the least. The memorandum came as the United Nations special representative to Lebanon, Michael Williams, told reporters that the small Arab country is at least seven years behind Israel in development of its natural offshore oil and gas deposits. He urged the Mitaki government to pass laws which would allow foreign companies to begin drilling in the area forthwith.

The UN official's remarks came just weeks after the world body announced that its special committee looking into the 2005 assassination of pro-Western Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri had issued indictments against four Lebanese suspects connected to the extremist Shiite movement. The indictments, which were firmly rejected by Hizbullah leaders, have markedly increased political tensions in the Land of the Cedars, with some Israeli analysts saying it was probably next in line to join the violent "Arab Spring" upheaval still gripping many countries in the tense region as the hot summer months roll on. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the late slain leader who was himself ousted from power in a bloodless Hizbullah coup last spring, warned that "these people stand accused, and they must be put on trial."

Crisis Escalates In Syria

Amid continuing Arab and international media reports stating that both Hizbullah militiamen and Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces are actively aiding the rogue Syrian Assad family regime to brutally suppress the massive popular uprising sweeping that country, reports emerged that Hizbullah has been rushing its stored weapons out of Syria in case the regime is finally forced out of power. Israeli media reports say surveillance satellites have photographed dozens of trucks ferrying Iranian and Syrian-supplied missiles and other heavy weaponry across the border in recent weeks. Included were said to be at least eight missiles similar to the Scuds fired by Saddam Hussein at Israeli coastal targets in 1991. Western Middle East experts say the collapse of the Assad regime would probably spell the end of Hizbullah's dominance of Lebanon, since it relies heavily on the neighboring Syrian dictatorship dominated by the Alawite sect, a Muslim sub-group that emerged from Shiite Islam, for its political dominance in Beirut.

With some international human rights groups now estimating that well over 2,000 Syrians have been killed so far in the intensifying popular revolt, most of them protestors, the despotic Assad regime stepped up its violent repression against the spreading uprising, which ominously moved to the capital Damascus for the first time in mid-July. After relatively tepid remarks calling upon autocratic officials to curb their deadly military operations against their own people, the American administration finally began to issue stern warnings to Assad that the vile slaughters would not be allowed to continue unanswered by the international community. Officials in Washington were especially angry when Assad unleashed his goons to attack both the American and French embassies in Damascus after those country's ambassadors to Syria visited protest camps in the western city of Homs. While hardly the unleashing of NATO warplanes such as is occurring in Libya, the apparent show of solidarity was obviously too much for the ruthless Assad and his family cohorts who have lorded it over Syria for many decades.

Israeli analysts said the embassy attacks demonstrated that the totalitarian Syrian regime is turning increasingly desperate as the uprising escalates. Noting that Assad commands one of the largest standing armies in the world and produces copious amounts of deadly VX and Sarin nerve gas stored in several of the cities currently under military siege, they warned that the crisis has now escalated to the point where the dictatorship may order military strikes upon Israeli targets as a diversionary tactic meant to unite his mostly Sunni Muslim subjects behind him. Such attacks would most likely be launched by Assad's surrogate Hizbullah forces, they added, giving rise to extra concerns over the reports that fully-assembled SCUD-type missiles are now streaming into Lebanon. At the same time, the Israeli analysts also questioned the popular media characterization of the Syrian protesters as being "pro-democracy," instead terming most of them as "anti-Assad" Muslims who would like a Sunni Islamic regime to replace the current Alawite one. Either way, they remain bitter opponents of Israel, as Assad understands and may attempt to manipulate to Israel's peril.

Officials in neighboring Jordan were said to be increasingly concerned over a growing flood of Syrian refugees seeking shelter in their small country. After being forced to absorb hundreds of thousand of Iraqis fleeing warfare and violence in that neighboring country, nervous Jordanian leaders don't need any more apples to upset the delicate applecart that is their small country. Israeli leaders are said to be concerned that some of the "refugees" might in fact be Syrian government and Iranian agents entering Jordan with the ultimate purpose of further destabilizing the pro-Western government in Amman and/or launching terrorist attacks upon Israeli embassy personnel stationed there.

Looming War With Iran?

Claims by an ex-CIA official that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to launch a military strike upon Iran's burgeoning nuclear programme in September received widespread media attention in Israel. The mid-July comments were made by retired CIA officer Robert Baer during an interview he gave to a Los Angeles radio station. He said Israeli leaders especially want to target the large Natanz nuclear facility where Iran has recently stepped up its uranium enrichment programme-a key component in the development of nuclear weapons. While refusing to pinpoint exactly what his startling prediction was based upon, he did state that Pentagon brass have "issued a warning order" to US military leaders located around the Middle East to prepare for possible counter-attacks from the Shiite Iranian regime against American targets in Iraq and other regional locations.

Baer, who operated out of US embassies in Damascus, Beirut and other regional countries for over 21 years, maintained that Netanyahu wants to draw the United States into any conflict that erupts as a result of its difficult military operation. He cited remarks made earlier in the month by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who warned Israeli government leaders that an IDF strike could spark off a much larger war involving Iran's allies Syria, Lebanon and Hamas. Baer claimed this indicated that Dagan is aware of a concrete plan to launch such an operation in the near term. He said the September date was likely since the Palestinian Authority is planning to make its unilateral statehood declaration late in the month at the United Nation's world headquarters in Manhattan, which could spark off violence in the Palestinian street. Netanyahu's office offered no comment on the ex-CIA official's broadcast comments.

Meanwhile the head of Israel's Homa Missile Defense Agency, Uzi Rubin, told reporters that Iran has now overtaken North Korea in the development and production of long range ballistic missiles that can reach all of Israel and southeast Europe. Citing several recent test firings from Iranian soil, he said some of the missiles have been passed on to Iranian Revolutionary Guards stationed with Hizbullah forces in Lebanon. Rubin expressed special concern over the Fateh-110 ballistic rocket which operates with a sophisticated laser guidance system and can target ships at sea from very long distances. He said up until now, Iran was only known to possess more traditional cruise anti-ship missiles that fly parallel to ocean waters.

Writing in the Jerusalem Post's weekly magazine, Israeli columnist Dovid Efune said that the regional unrest currently gripping many Arab countries actually provides the perfect backdrop for an IDF strike on Iran's threatening nuclear programme. Citing a Wall Street Journal report in early July detailing the growing use of Iranian weapons against dwindling American forces operating in Iraq, he opined that the US administration might be more open than many believe to an Israeli operation that would effectively reduce Iran's military capabilities. Further than that, Efune wrote that many Israeli government and military leaders are not afraid of a wider conflict with the Iranian regime and its allies, seeing it as anyway inevitable at some point and the only way to finally deal with hostile Hizbullah and Hamas forces, if not with the besieged Syrian regime.

Gaza Rockets Aimed Again At Israel

After several months of relative calm, a slew of Palestinian rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israeli civilian targets beginning in mid-July. Several landed close to the large coastal city of Ashkelon, which has often been targeted in the past. The firings prompted renewed IDF air strikes upon rocket firing militiamen and Hamas outposts, killing a number of Palestinian fighters in the process. The action came as the Arab League officially endorsed the Palestinian Authority's announcement that it will declare unilateral statehood at the UN the second half of September, a move opposed by Israel, the United States, Germany and other countries but supported by over 100 UN member states.

Anticipating stepped up Palestinian violence in the run-up and aftermath of the planned one-sided declaration; the IDF has increased its acquisition of non-lethal riot suppression equipment, including tear gas, rubber bullets and protective plastic shields. Media reports detailing the growing IDF preparations came as an opinion poll conducted by pro-peace Jewish American and Palestinian groups revealed that two-thirds of all Palestinians still support the 1974 PLO "Phased Plan," which stated that any land captured by, or granted to the Palestinians be used as a staging ground for further attacks upon Israel until the Jewish State is destroyed. To say the least, the results were not gratifying to the survey's Arab and Jewish sponsors.

With tensions mounting as the possibly tumultuous month of September draws ever nearer, it is essential to remember, as we pray, that "Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord, the people that He has chosen for His own inheritance" (Psalm 33:12).