Israel Update for January 2011

American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed sharp concern over the deteriorating political situation in Beirut, stating that the US government is 'deeply worried about the efforts to destabilize Lebanon.' Analysts said the senior US diplomat was apparently alluding to the not-so-hidden negative role that both the Iranian and Syrian regimes have been playing in the unfolding Lebanese drama.

In the north of Israel, IDF troops were placed on heightened alert in order to counter any possible military recriminations from the Lebanese government collapse-which some were calling the possible first stage of a Hizbullah militia coup engineered in Tehran and Damascus. Lebanese media reports said Israeli air force jets flew low over several south Lebanese towns, including the Shiite center of Nabitiyah and Baalbeck in the Hizbullah-controlled Bekaa Valley. Yaakov Amidor, a retired IDF army general, told Israel's Army Radio that 'things are liable to slip out of the hands of the decision makers' in Beirut. He added that the situation in Lebanon is both 'volatile and delicate,' noting ominously that 'everyone there has a lot of weapons, a lot of resentment, a lot of frustration-you never know where it could lead.' Fears increased further after Hizbullah staged a mock takeover of Beirut the morning of January 18, sending unarmed militiamen to twelve strategic locations. The pre-announced action caused most parents to keep their children home from school.

Adding to concerns in Israel that Lebanon might fall completely under the grip of Hizbullah and its foreign paymasters, the IDF Home Front Command warned that if the Shiite militia launched missiles at Tel Aviv in an attempt to divert attention from the growing sectarian crisis in the country, residents of Israel's main urban centre would have a mere 90 seconds warning notice in order to take shelter. Defense Minister Barak stated last year that any such attack on civilian population areas would be met by a fierce IDF response which would target Lebanese government and army positions, not just Hizbullah outposts. However analysts said this full retaliation policy might not now be adhered to since Hizbullah politicians are no longer part of Lebanon's ruling coalition.

Labor Party Splits In Two

No Israeli political analyst could have foretold a few decades ago that the once mighty Labor party, which ruled Israel uninterruptedly from 1948 until 1977, would eventually slip into obscurity. However that is exactly the fate that has befallen the socialist party founded by Israel's first Prime Minister, David Ben Gurion. The once mighty party is now down to a mere eight members in the 120 seat Knesset. That unprecedented low was reached on January 17 when party leader Ehud Barak broke away with four other Labor Knesset members to form a new party called Atzma'ut, Hebrew for 'Independence'. Barak immediately resigned from the Netanyahu government, along with Industry and Trade Minister Binyamin Ben- Eliezer, Welfare and Social Services Minister Isaac Herzog, and Minority Affairs Minister Avishai Braverman.

Saying that the Labor party had drifted too far to the left, the former premier and armed forces chief of staff declared that his new party would be 'centrist, Zionist and democratic'. Barak implied that some of his former party colleagues had joined the radical left, which he said had adopted what he termed 'post-Zionist' leanings. Isaac Herzog, the son of former Israeli President Chaim Herzog who once served as chief rabbi of Ireland, told reporters that, with the party deeply split between members who wanted to remain in the right-leaning Netanyahu coalition government and those who wished to bolt it, the formation of the new party was 'a painful but necessary move'.

Opposition leader Tzipi Livni, who heads Kadima, the largest party in the current Knesset, demanded that new national elections be held as quickly as possible. However analysts said such an expensive move became unnecessary when Ehud Barak signed a new coalition agreement with Binyamin Netanyahu just one day after his resignation. The veteran politician will retain his post as Defense Minister, while another member of his new party, former armed forces chief Matan Vilna'i, was appointed Minister of Homeland Security.

Many speculated that the mutual coalition accord was actually hammered out between the two top officials before Barak made his dramatic announcement. Netanyahu's office later admitted that the Premier knew of Barak's resignation plans in advance. The agreement between Barak and Netanyahu brought five Knesset seats back to Netanyahu's coalition quilt, meaning the Likud leader retains a comfortable majority of Israeli legislators who formally support his government.

Trouble West And East

Nearly 100,000 Jews immigrated to Israel during the early years of the state from the Arab country of Tunisia. Along with the entire Arab world, they and their offspring were closely following the dramatic ouster in mid-January of one of the longest serving Arab rulers, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. He was forced out of office after 23 years when anti-government protest riots spread in Tunis and other parts of the small North African country. Many of the protestors told reporters they were angry over the lack of democracy in Tunisia, and also by rising food and fuel prices that have left many Tunisians destitute. Similar protest demonstrations later spread to Egypt, Oman, Libya and Yemen.

The unrest actually began in neighboring Algeria, a much larger Arab country with serious economic woes. Regional Arab satellite networks carried extensive coverage of the spreading protests, interviewing many Tunisians who openly expressed disdain for their autocratic leader, coupled with desires to see political and economic reforms quickly instituted. Many demanded more openness and expanded personal freedoms.

Israeli media reports said several other Arab governments suffering economic woes were nervously watching the situation in Tunisia-afraid that popular protests might spread to their own streets and possibly endanger their rule. Israeli officials were said to be especially concerned that Hamas agents operating in Jordan might try to spark off street violence in that neighboring Arab country. Worries increased after the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood movement, which works as a front for Hamas, issued a public demand for King Abdullah to immediately fire his cabinet and prepare for new elections that would include candidates linked to the movement. A similar call was made in Egypt.

Several Arab Christian leaders living in Israel and Palestinian Authority zones of control expressed growing concerns during January that escalating Muslim extremist violence against Christians living in Iraq and Egypt might ultimately reach the local Christian community. A deadly attack on a Roman Catholic Church service in Baghdad late last year prompted many Iraqi Christians to flee the country, with some heading to Jordan but most crossing over into Turkey, where the UN and several aid agencies have set up centres to assist them. The exodus was reinforced when small explosive packages were left on the doorsteps of several Iraqi Christians over the Christmas holidays. Al Qaida in Iraq took responsibility for the violent Baghdad attack and vowed to launch other assaults against Christians living in Iraq and other Muslim-dominated Middle East countries.

Next door in Iran, dozens of Christians connected to the burgeoning 'house church' movement, including many pastors, have been arrested in an operation that began after Christmas. Most of the detained Christians have been charged with violating Iranian law by trying to convert Muslims to their faith, with some also accused of spying for foreign countries.